The present disclosure relates to advertising in an online environment and to simulating an online advertising campaign. The present disclosure further relates to conducting an advertising auction based on a shadow advertising campaign and one or more actual advertising campaigns, and to strategies for evaluating the performance of a shadow advertising campaign based on one or more actual advertising campaigns.
Internet advertising has increased significantly with the expanding commercialization of the World-Wide-Web. Advertising on the Internet began, at least in part, with advertisements (or “ads”) that were featured as content on advertisers' home pages. As with conventional media, an Internet ad campaign can comprise one or more ads that are displayed through one or more outlets, such as web sites or individual web pages.
An ad can serve one or more intended purposes, including commercial, charitable, educational, and entertainment purposes. Additionally, an online ad can exist in a variety of forms, such as text, video, audio, image, or any combination thereof. Each display of an ad to a user is referred to as an impression (or an “exposure”). Typically, an impression is generated when a web page including the ad is displayed in a web browser window of a user device. An ad also can be configured to include embedded code, such as a hyperlink, that allows a user to “click-through” the ad. Clicking-through an ad can activate a function, such as redirecting the browser to a different web page or displaying an additional window. For example, a new window can be opened to provide information describing a product or service described in the ad to a user. A new window also can be opened to allow the user to initiate a purchase transaction.
The effectiveness of an ad can be measured in various ways. For example, the click-through rate (CTR) of an ad can be determined to identify how frequently the ad is accessed when it is presented. The CTR of an ad can be calculated by dividing the number of click-throughs associated with the ad by the number of impressions of that ad over a given time period. The number of conversions associated with an ad also can be used as a measure of effectiveness. A conversion can be any desired action taken in response to the ad, including a sale, a download, a contact, a request, or an entry into a database. As with the CTR, the conversion rate can be determined by dividing the number of conversions attributed to an ad by the number of impressions of that ad over a given time period.
The presentation and placement of ads on web pages has evolved along with other Internet content. Ads now typically occupy the periphery of web pages or are integrated with other content in the body of a web page. For example, banner ads, expandable banner ads, tile ads, and skyscraper ads each can be mixed with additional content comprising a web page. Ads also can be displayed in separate browser windows, which are referred to as pop-up or pop-under windows. Further, ads can be integrated with toolbars or presented as temporary objects that are configured to appear and disappear without user intervention.
As with conventional print and broadcast media, a web site can be used to present (or “host”) ads associated with one or more third-party advertisers. Further, the hosting web site can receive compensation from the third-party running the ad, including payment and reciprocal advertising. Additionally, a web site can demand higher payment for the presentation of an ad as the amount of traffic on that web site increases. As with conventional media, the increased traffic can provide greater exposure for the ad, which in turn can generate a higher number of conversions or click-throughs even if the CTR or conversion rate is lower than that of a less popular site.
Search engines were among the first content providers to successfully sell Internet space to third-party advertisers. Further, some search engine providers created advertising systems that are able to match advertisements with available advertising space, both on the search engine's web pages and web pages associated with other content providers. A search engine advertising system also can be configured to conduct an automated, real-time auction to select one or more ads for display in response to input received from a user. Additionally, a search engine advertising system can be further configured to automatically insert one or more ads into content comprising a particular web page. For example, an ad can be inserted into a predetermined area of a static or dynamically-generated web page. Further, an advertising system can select and order ads that are to be inserted into a web page in accordance with a wide range of criteria associated with the ads. The criteria used to select and order ads can include one or more bids submitted by an advertiser, a CTR, a conversion rate, a geographical preference, and a language preference.
Additionally, an advertising system can be configured to permit multiple advertisers to compete for the same advertising space. For example, a search engine can display one or more ads in response to a keyword or keyword combination received from a user. If two or more advertisers desire to have their ads displayed in response to a specific keyword or keyword combination, each advertiser can specify a bid corresponding to their ad. An advertising system can be configured to select one or more ads for display in response to input from a user comprising one or more keywords. Further, the advertising system can be configured to determine the display order of the selected ads in accordance with one or more factors, including the corresponding bids.
Advertisers, however, can be reluctant to allocate a portion of an advertising budget to Internet advertising without some assurance regarding performance. An advertiser thus can be reluctant to specify a corresponding bid that will be competitive in an auction. Therefore, a variety of ways to gauge the effectiveness of an Internet ad have been developed. For example, some advertisers have launched one or more test ads. A test ad can be representative of a larger advertising campaign comprising one or more related ads. Further, the test ad can be restricted with respect to one or more parameters, including the number of associated keywords, the allocated budget, and the length of time over which the ad is run. Additionally, the scope of the test ad can be limited, such as to a single web site, to users in a particular geographic region, or even with respect to the time of day and day of the week on which the ad is run. Data associated with the test ad can be analyzed to determine whether an expanded campaign should be launched or whether one or more refinements to the ad campaign should be implemented.
The success of an ad campaign also can be projected using historical data. For example, the number of requests comprising a particular keyword or keyword combination that will be received during a future period can be estimated using search requests received during a preceding period of time. The CTR and/or conversion rate of an ad can be similarly estimated using performance data associated with related ads that have been previously run. Additionally, an initial bid amount can be established in accordance with historical bidding levels. If data from a sufficient period is available, one or more campaign settings also can be adjusted based on a trend analysis.
Additionally, the success of an ad campaign can be modeled, such as through a modeling application. For example, historical data relating to similar ad campaigns can be manipulated based on one or more assumptions about the future. In order to generate projected results for an ad, one or more parameters associated with the ad can be entered into the modeling application. The projected results produced by the model then can be used to determine whether the ad or an associated ad campaign should be implemented.